50/50 on the Ohtani Collection, But All In on Banchero

Baseball is back, baby, and in the biggest way possible! 

We’re headed into the thick of October with both the Dodgers and Yankees alive in the round of 8 and while conspiracy theorists are having their day (big market bias, baby!!), so too are collectors. 

So I ask you collectors, is there a reason why Shohei Ohtani’s cards are exploding in a way that Aaron Judge’s card market isn’t? Yes, Ohtani is the greatest both-sides-of-the-ball player since Babe Ruth and his 50/50 season is the best single-season performance since, checks notes, last season when he had a legit shot at winning both the MVP and Cy Young awards.

(Wait, did I just answer my own question?).

BUT we’re seeing such nominal increases in market movement for Judge that there’s an opportunity to even grab just a few base rookie cards while the moment strikes, because as you know, if the Yankees win the World Series this year we probably won’t ever hear the end of it from their fans and the national media. 

Like, ever.

Speaking of Ohtani, there seems to have been a (potential) miscalculation from Topps on their 50/50 Shohei Ohtani collection. Retailing at just under $240 for 10 packs of 5 cards (or 1 pack with 5 cards for $25), the set sold out pretty quickly on Topps.com - “Hey, Mr. Fickle, that doesn’t sound like a miscalculation to me!” - however, it has been met with aversion from a certain corner of the Internet. And perhaps for good reason. 

Firstly, within each 10-pack box you are only guaranteed one parallel or short print. The odds aren’t all that great if you’re looking to chase something big, meaning: base cards galore! 

Which gets me to my second point. For nearly $250 per box, with 50 cards in a box and a 100-card checklist you’re basically saying for $500 and the universe “owing you one (big time!)” you can complete the set. But you won’t, because the universe doesn’t treat us that way. It will take a massive investment to complete what could have been a pretty cool set. Just ask Geoff Wilson. 

But what if Topps made the set of 100 base cards available to buy for $25 - no autos, no parallels, just 100 cards of (arguably) the world’s most famous human and potentially the greatest player to ever live? And at the same time they could sell a $1,200 set with a pack that includes 5 parallels (one of which could be a potential auto)?

I know why they don’t do that, but if Topps is looking to grow this hobby in a way that creates fans for life, they should actually consider a set like this in the future. 

And while I have you…

The Hobby Quick Hits has a timely podcast all around checking in with yourself and being mindful and aware of your mental health as you go through the constant rush of chasing your collection. A very important listen and something to remember to do often. 

Is anyone buying old newspapers and if you’re not – why? Maybe I’m late to the game here but we’ve seen a run on nostalgia and on all things from CDs to DVDs to Cassette Tapes to magazines (thanks in part to grading companies and SI Kids cards having an exploding market). 

Still, I have a theory on newspapers that I want to run by you. 

Grandpa Fickle used to collect newspapers from important events in his life - both personal and from an entertainment perspective. Why? Because there was no Internet. No cellphones. The only way to have an actual written documentation of that event you went to or that moment when the president you voted for was sworn in, was to read and hold onto the newspaper. And a lot of people did that. 

They collected newspapers in the way they didn’t collect baseball cards. Tell me: why are you busy working today? Oh, right, because your grandfather used his 1952 Mickey Mantle cards as a way to make dumb sounds on his bicycle. And why are those cards so valuable today? Because all (or most) of our grandparents did the same thing. Jerks. (Just kidding… but also kinda not kidding). 

So now we do things like put all our baseball cards in non-destructible slabs and use our newspapers to make dumb ASMR videos. If we take the collectors mentality, when 30 years from now we look back on Ohtani’s 50/50 season and take out our Ohtani collection we bought from Topps, and pull out card #12 from the collection, with a PSA pop count of 89,327… maybe we should have been making fewer ASMR videos with the Los Angeles Times cover story on his 50/50 season and holding onto the paper instead. 

What do you think? 

Wait, are we buying Sam Darnold rookie cards? Please don’t tell me we’re buying Sam Darnold rookies - am I too late?! I think the Vikings have a real shot at winning their division this year, but you all already talked me into buying Brock Purdy - can we all just hold hands and say that we’re sitting this one out when it comes to Darnold? 

My favorite random “mover of the week” - thanks to MarketMovers - is Chris Johnson, RB, formerly of the Titans, seeing his 2008 Topps Chrome X-Fractor RC in PSA 9 jump up over 723% this week. Someone bought a PSA 9 last week for $4.25 and then the following day there was a “run on” his cards with someone jumping in for $34.99. All this after seeing the last PSA 10 of this card go for sale almost 3 years ago for $45. 

I love these random jumps! It’s so fun to get into people’s heads. 

Finally, the NBA season is right around the corner and if you’re like me you are already buying way too many speculative cards: like, as the old say goes “someone on this team has to score.” And while I’m looking squarely at you, Cam Thomas of the Brooklyn Nets (that dude can literally average the least impressive 35 points per game in the history of the NBA), I also have my eyes on Jalen Johnson of the Hawks and, less surprising, Paolo Banchero who could contend for the MVP this year - and actually has a palatable market. 

Thank you for reading. We hope this was fun! And don’t forget- send all complaints to [email protected]!