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Spend $5K for Boxes of Cereal? Did I Do That?

Mail Day #16

We’re entering the era of sitcom nostalgia. Or, maybe I should phrase it as a question: are we entering the era of sitcom nostalgia? 

Last week I noted the Rittenhouse ‘Cheers’ trading cards set being released at the end of February, and now there’s this sitcom haul; a treasure-trove of rare Steve Urkel collectibles. And it can be yours for a cool $5,000. 

ebay.com

It comes with a bunch of “Urkel O’s” boxes as well as a “how to” selling guide, you know, in case you want to become a Urkel O’s salesman. This is a BIN/OBO sale on eBay - lucky for me it’s not an auction; I might have had a “Did I do that?” moment and placed a regretful bid.  

I’m not entirely sure this will get the asking price of $5,000 but then again with sitcoms becoming a thing of the past you really have to wonder if nostalgia will carry collectibles like these into the next hot wave. 

Awesome collector alert! Awesome collector alert! 

You have to go read Germanphil13’s story on Mantel about tracking down MLB rookie Ricky Vanasco’s dad and sending him one of Ricky’s numbered rookie cards, thereby helping him complete a rainbow. For nothing. For free. For the simple act and joy of collecting. Nicely done, Phil! 

We’re in the era of “BANG! Collector pulls 1/1 from $15 Walmart box” and it’s kinda fun to see. Whether it’s an Allen Iverson 1/1 or a Paul Skenes 1/1 rookie from a single, loose pack, we’re finally seeing the narrative shift slightly away from “of course it’s a breaker, ugh.”

My personal theory is that this has always been the case, we just don’t often see regular collectors pulling massive hits on camera because they have no real reason to film themselves ripping packs.

Let this be all our theory and maybe retire “of course it was a breaker”?

Of course it was a breaker

Way back in Mail Day #2 I wrote about the Shohei Ohtani 50/50 collection that Topps released and I basically called it out for them shilling a box of base cards and a lotto ticket (i.e. one parallel card) for over $100. 

And of course I bit and bought a box. And of course that box turned out to return maybe $20 in actual value. 

My thesis was that I wasn’t anti-this-set but more anti-the price to enter it. It was not “collector friendly” - especially when it hit the secondary market for over $400 - and not “investor friendly” either. It was a cool concept that was poorly executed. 

“Says the salty guy who lost almost $100 on his box.” Shut it.

store.NBA.com

Is it time to start piling up on Nikola Jovic cards? Just this past week he became the youngest player in Miami Heat history to score 21 points in a game with 8 rebounds and 5 assists. 

With the Heat looking like they are going to move away from Jimmy Butler and potentially blow things up, it might be time to take a serious look at Jovic (Editor’s note: This is not investment advice and Mr. Fickle is often wrong in his predictions. As an example, see prices for the A&G Balloon Boy Relic card). 

Alright, buckle up for some sports card prognostication that goes nowhere. The best kind! 

The NFL playoffs are in full swing and the three top quarterbacks in the game are still alive with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson bottleneck-ing their way toward the Super Bowl. 

And while the 4th best QB in the league - I would say “arguably” though I don’t think there’s much of an argument against him - in Joe Burrow just missing out on the playoffs, I’m looking at the market and wondering which quarterback (not named Burrow) who missed out on the playoffs this year has the potential to be a buy-low candidate in the sports card market. 

A few candidates who came to mind were Brock Purdy (the low-hanging fruit), Trevor Lawrence and, believe it or not, Bryce Young. 

on3.com

Purdy might soon find himself as the highest paid player in the league, albeit likely for a short period of time, but here’s the thing about Purdy: he actually had a pretty good season. He finished 7th in the NFL in QBR, ahead of Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, two potential Super Bowl-bound QBs. 

If you’re thinking about him as a buy-low candidate, I’m not sure he’s quite the guy. Mostly because over the last 30 days his market is only down 3.35% according to Alt. It might go lower, but it’s not quite low

And what about Lawrence? Injuries got the best of him this season, as did just a terrible football team. He’s seen his cards drop around 7.2% over the last 30 days, but the tide is starting to turn for him - he’s up 1.2% in the last 7 days, also according to Alt. 

Lawrence likely gets better next year, but does he ever actually become a Top 10 quarterback in the league? He’s yet to crack the Top 15 in QBR and with a really strong QB rookie class hitting the market this past season, that climb to the Top 10 got even harder for him. 

Now, let’s talk Bryce Young. He started to make some noise toward the end of the season to the tune of out-playing both CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson and finishing Top 20 in QBR. 

We’ve seen CJ Stroud’s market drop in a major way but here we are watching Stroud win his second playoff game in just his second season. 

Would you place a bet today that Stroud and the Texans will make the playoffs next year? Now how about Young and the Panthers? Is it reasonable to think that Young’s market will usurp Stroud even if his stats are better when he doesn’t make the playoffs in year 3 and Stroud gets there? 

OK, so all this nerdy-bro-you-really-didn’t-tell-us-anything analysis to get to the answer: who are you buying low on? 

How about some Will Levis? His market has absolutely cratered. It’s down nearly 30% over the last 30 days (Alt) and while it’s absolutely expected that he’s played his last game with the Titans, is it possible that he has a Sam Darnold run in him in a few years? Or, wait, is that Mac Jones? Or maybe Justin Fields? 

Damnit, we don’t know. Collect what you love, etc. But also maybe put a Will Levis auto away for a future rainy day. They’re practically free. 

Finally, our most sincere thoughts, prayers and overall vibes go out to those in the Los Angeles area who have been devastated by wild fires. This goes beyond those who’ve shared stories of lost collections; let’s keep everyone in and around this disaster in our thoughts.

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